The people that buy into bitcoin will be hurting enough financially. Satoshi, the founder, sits on 10% but he has never spent a single cent. Even a significant percentage would be really stupid. 3. Own as much Bitcoin as matches your understanding of Bitcoin. January 4, 2018, 7:28 am. Facebook is probably the 4th or 5th legitimate social media platform. I guess Petes point here is that block chain protocol has benefits but bitcoin is stupid. Also, a currency should not be artificially sparse. When evaluating investment bubbles, it means looking at where everyone is throwing their money no matter how many billions and being willing to say Bull. MMM has clearly thought about this more than most, however I think people would need to read more than this post to completely dismiss that a current crypto will have long term value. Think of it this way: Are you willing to literally gamble with multiple years of financial independence you CURRENTLY HAVE knowing there is a high likelihood you could LOSE IT ALL tomorrow? Youre playing a psychological, win-lose battle against other humans with money as the only objective. Now lets get back to your kick-ass money savvy engineering experiments :-), Oh, dont feel too bad. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeMv9uKpAZg, The Wealthy Accountant Bitcoin is used for some pretty awful things, the accountant at my dads prior employer stole $500,000+ and likely hid it from the authorities. Fiat currency has neither. Congratulations, it sounds like you gambled and won. I did Control F, and verified that MMM never used the word Ponzi or Pyramid, and in fact Vijay, you were the first person to bring up the Ponzi Scheme topic, and then you linked some article (which I did not care to read). Just the same with crypto-currencies today. I dont think so. as long as people in their consciousness believe it is a store of value it is. You cannot have blockchain without bitcoin. Its mind-boggling how much electricity is being wasted. People will overbuy it in a frenzy and oversell it when fear sets in. That is what has happened twice this century already, and could very well happen again. !, What is money? (Or computers or spaceships.) Its cut a few years from our projected FIRE date. Thats why wind farms are much more economical in areas with large scale hydro. Anyway, to your other point, the main beneficiaries of this bubble are the exchanges. It doesnt mean they are in bubbles at any price. Pure Air and a bunch of IOUs that it will eventually default on. Mr. Butler They may settle to much less, or get close to zero, or they may grow more, no one can really predict this. I have to disagree with one of your points here: in a worst-case scenario, if you have enough gold, you may be able to beat it between some rocks to make a serviceable frying pan. One reason why everyone is piling money into BTC and other crypto might be because the stock market is way too expensive right now. You all and Mr. Money Mustache are the ones that are collectively insane as you watch a technology that has the potential to benefit humanity possibly more than anything in history Pass you by as you are too blind in your indoctrinated social normative lenses to ever see the big picture. I just dont understand the new economy. Talk of being blissfully ignorant! drugs, prostitution, gambling, etc.) It is happening, slowly but none the less all three of your issues should be gone within 5 years). im not some conspiracy theorist but I do see the value in a global decentralized currency (none of which is tax evasion btw, Every major exchange currently advises and provides you with a modified 1099-INT for you to file taxes, the IRS as well recognizes bitcoin as owning property and implicated short/long term taxes for owners). Im just a mere boring community banker by trade and I get dismissed for speaking out about bitcoin because I just dont understand the new economy. Blockchain is just a computer protocol, which allows two people (or machines) to do transactions even if they dont trust each other or the network between them. I read an interesting article regarding the price fluctuations, but I cant find it now. Theres nothing fraudulent about Bitcoin its mass hysteria driving demand. Discussion with friend from nVidia is irrelevant to bitcoin mining. But the fantasy that the world will switch to Bitcoin so you'll need it to conduct commerce so you better get yours now is just totally implausible to me. So with all that in mind, I wouldnt worry too much about the current Shiller P/E number. The second point is also critical: Bitcoin is only valuable if it truly becomes a critical world currency. MentalArson Im 100% with you when you say investing in bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) isnt smart. The blockchain is only 1 part of Bitcoin. January 3, 2018, 7:23 am. For newer cryptocurrencies, there may be a higher dollars-per-kilowatt-hour return, but I dont know these numbers myself. But I hope the good times continue for a long while! If you know anyone heavily vested in bitcoin, stay in touch with them. No. Speculation is fine, as long as you are using only money you are willing to lose. People then go on to say, If theres even a ONE PERCENT CHANCE that this happens, Bitcoins are severely undervalued and they should really be worth, like, at least a quadrillion dollars each!!. January 3, 2018, 7:20 am. , Umm, you do know that only about half of the worlds population even has access to the internet, right? Ask me Anything! . As long as you can find another willing buyer before the price crashes. Herd behavior? The ones who own the farms you mean? Here is one interesting chart among many that shows exactly that: Even things that can be good investments can be in a bubble. January 5, 2018, 11:59 am. Well, SOMEONE has to keep the bankers & wealthy rich, right??? January 3, 2018, 12:55 pm. Some companies are already testing it in main net as well! Market prices are not set by consensus. No difference there. Even if Mining gets centralised, Bitcoins future cannot be dictated to by them! I could only shake my head. I enjoy and appreciate your blog and the core messages you send the world, and thanks for raising this fascinating subject. 2 years later, and each coin is 28,736.04 or $39,388.47. 1) Energy consumption Bitcoin consumes a massive amount of energy to secure the network. Most people cant afford to drop huge amounts in crypto at one time, so you have college kids paying $2-3 every week buying $50 worth of BTC. January 15, 2018, 9:20 am. Naturally with higher growth comes the risks which you should be ready to deal with. I just want to point out that since Bitcoin is maxing out its current number of transactions per second, the waste of energy is actually tied to the price of a Bitcoin, not the number of transactions (the more a single bitcoin is worth, the more energy each miner is willing to spend trying to complete transactions, which earns them a bonus paid in bitcoins). Im thrilled to see the godfather speak on this. Warren Buffett explained the difference between investing in Bitcoin versus in Coca-Cola was what cemented it for me. Bitcoin reminds me of a story my daughter told me. I argue that fiat currency is inefficient because its supply is always increasing. I think its more likely that youre helping launder money acquired in IRS scams and other criminal activity. I am smiling because Im content to let others gamble. Unless, of course, it starts rolling *in* terrible new earnings compared to price, which is certainly possible. His rhetoric about trusting the wise elites of the Federal Reserve also irks me. If so, this could negate the discount benefit for small purchases. I buy bitcoin with the expectation that bitcoin will solve the problems it currently faces and become more widely accepted thus increasing demand driving up the price. Vijay, its okay. Not saying thats why he wrote the article, but just that there are certain advantages to being an Internet Celebrity, one of which is that everything you write turns to gold, er, uh, bitcoin, er, uh, whatever. Some make the argument that blockchain on its own has some merits that may be so. By exchanging dollars or euros for a fee? Most of us, especially in the US and Europe, are free and are allowed to accumulate wealth through education and hard work. I just hope my tax dollars arent used to bail these folks out. Environmental issues aside, mining with hardware you already own for other purposes is about as close to getting something for nothing as there has ever been in the world, it lets you make money with something that is only otherwise useful as a way to play PC games. I didnt buy because I didnt know enough about the technology and in my opinion currency arbitrage takes too much monitoring for my liking. Basic Economics Vijay. Thats fairly over the top. For instance, I believe I bought tulip bulbs for my wife at a price around $1 a bulb, and we were quite happy with them. Id love to see MMM fingernail futures one day on my ticker chart. The problem with speculation is that the few that get in early certainly do make hordes of money at the expense of hordes of people that get in when speculative mania is at its peakinevitably to crash at some point. That is why I also invest in government bonds. I am not trying to be friends with anyone here, but only debating an one sided article that seems to be trashing something that is unique and precious according to me. If you read your history on this subject you would understand why I dont. Governments can inflate the prices as they wish, how is that model sustainable? Vijay, If you want to move away from current currencies then you would probably have better luck starting a Craigslist for bartering website where you cant list prices. $100 per post is pretty motivating. Crypto is here to stay albeit probably not at insane prices. Mr. Money Mustache shares his opinion about Bitcoin. About half a trillion dollars worth of gnashing and rending. David Wendelken Bill Batchelor Full faith and what? But sometimes they do. MissSaraBee So I also read a lot about investment bubbles and fundamentals and how to tell those apart. Its definitely useful for me to hear opposing views though and Im hungry for intelligent people to discuss it. A lot of jobs today exists only to oversee things. Sure, an anonymous way to exchange money and escape the eyes of a corrupt government is a good thing for human rights. A prescient article, but unfortunately, those of us that have investigated Bitcoin and come to the same conclusions(no interest in speculation, possibly completely value-less) must continue to put up with the Bitcoin bulls, and as seen in this comment section, they are extremely bullish. They are very valuable and the price is sure to rocket! Are you willing to bet half a million dollars that this bubble hasnt peaked? 2) lots of other things are used as a store of value (paintings, etc) But this is not necessarily correct in every case. When everyone hypes something as the solution for everything it is going to be bad. I keep thinking of that movie where the actor says Explain it to me like Im a 2 year old.. There is a high chance that Bitcoin doesnt remain #1 forever because there are so many cryptocurrencies, many of which with very different applications, including some that arent even based on blockchain technology. The rise in bitcoin represents people waking up to one delusion (false paper valuations) and unfortunately accepting another delusionthat digits are more valuable and trustworthy than paper. (Update from late 2018 Mike ended up being wayyyy wrong.). But at least 98% of MMM readers do not live in countries where this is an issue. Thus, they are not useful, and produce nothing useful. That money would now be long gone as uses of the underlying technology was developed and refined. Vijay, I think you should sell every non-bitcoin asset you own, borrow as much money as you possibly can, and buy as many bitcoins as possible. LennStar Why you ask? Speculation is very useful and I dont think anyone is going off on peoples choice to speculate, but people are very bad at properly evaluating risk. We can effectively automate trust. Bitcoins arent duplicable, your fingernails could be replaced by other fingernails and nobody would notice unless they do a mass spectrometry. That is a fairly dumb sock puppet, since he never spoke about them. Yes there is. I wouldnt! I really would hope that MMM doesnt sell out like most social influencers but regardless not understanding the technology is no excuse for spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt about it. It has now grown quite a bit, of course. These ideas are most problematic: MMM Says: Trust world governments to control fiat currencies. Well start with the answer:No, you should not invest in Bitcoin. Jul 25, 2021 164 comments The other argument for Bitcoins value is that there will only ever be 21 million of them, and they will eventually replace all other world currencies, or at least become the new gold, so the fundamental value is either the entire worlds GDP or at least the total value of all gold, divided by 21 million. Once you make this separation in your mind, you can see that Blockchain is a simply a nifty new software invention (which is open-source and free for anyone to use), whereas Bitcoin is just one well-known way to use it. January 3, 2018, 7:20 am, If you could have somehow monetised the Internet in 1992 and sold it. FriendlyPoster Your in effect speculating on a winner even if you do believe the technology is the future. Wow, you really have no idea how hydroelectric power works. This instability just further proves that it would make a terrible currency and a recent study reveals that about, Mr. Money Mustache. Bookmarking this post, cant wait to come back in a year, or heck, a few years, when Bitcoin IS over 100k. destroy? Eenvoudig leven . The sooner we debunk the myth and come to our senses, the richer our world will be. When you make this kind of purchase, which you should never do, you arespeculating,which is not a useful activity. Not the only reason, but if earnings dont pan out, stock prices wont necessarily drop. positive change I would say, the world is getting smaller) changes is because it makes things easier. My disagreements w the article summarized: Interesting article, with some great points. But yes, you should think about getting out, since you have enough now. Think about it and I know you realise what is happening. SMH. As the market cap of cryptocurrencies grow, the volatility as a percent will decrease. Although I do get where MMM is trying put an emphasis on the difference in investing and speculation. January 3, 2018, 8:55 am. But from now on, Im going to replace that sob story with this: Man, I missed out on MMM fingernail clippings! to remind myself of the absurdity of that imagined sunk cost Ive burdened myself with. Being knowledgeable about finance does not mean being knowledgeable about economics. January 2, 2018, 6:23 pm. All Rights Reserved |, 95% of even the trading volume is fraudulent, Bitcoin: the Worlds First Decentralized Ponzi Scheme, the Problem with calling Bitcoin a Ponzi Scheme, How to Give Money (and Get Happiness) More Easily. I read somewhere on Twitter (cant remember where) that you can use anyone who uses Blockchain as a proper noun as a heuristic for how little they know of the space. that would be a PE ratio of 1. While it is true that stocks are probably expensive right now, one thing that doesnt get mentioned enough with Shiller P/E is the E represents the 10-year rolling average inflation-adjusted earnings. So theres a positive feedback loop here. As platforms. Do you really think you own your Fiat paper? I think its a bit of stretch to call Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme. Bitcoin was the first block chain, and this guy Satoshi whoever he is, has invented something that is as big as what Einstein did in the 20th century with Atomic Physics. Mr. Money Mustache (Pete Adeney in real life) is a Colorado family man who retired 11 years ago at age 30 after an unexceptional 10-year engineering career, and now writes occasionally about. Its only valuable when you cash it out to a real currency again, like the US dollar, and use it to buy something useful like a nice house or a business. Mustachianism the mental training that gets you to very early financial freedom requires you to evaluate inefficiencies in our culture and call bullshit upon them. I can have a stash of cash that is inflation proof just in case the government decides to wildly inflate the currency. If you want just one reason it is that governments will not allow it. Human Kind has never had the opportunity to truly own their money ever, and Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are the first time we even have that opportunity. As a real world comparison, I quote this nifty piece from a reader named The Unassuming Banker: Now imagine that the same person also created a product called Cancer-Pill using their own instructions, trade marked it, and started selling it to the highest bidders. Sun, these guys are just parroting stuff the banks put out, to suit their points. Video compression tech. January 3, 2018, 7:12 am. What if you want it for yourself, or have customers or distributors that do? Its a huge money maker if you can bet that youre not the bigger fool. It can have applications in the monetary system, contracts, and even as a component in higher level protocols like sharing files. For a shortcut to understanding good investing, you can also simply look up Warren Buffets thinking on almost any topic hes careful enough about offering opinions that by the time he makes a statement on something, you can be pretty sure it will be among the best answers out there. What are the world currencies pegged to ? https://twitter.com/SunnyStartups/status/946711941250273280/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcointelegraph.com%2Fnews%2Findia-falsely-condemns-bitcoin-as-ponzi-scheme-flawed-logic, A man is not a financial plan And of course, the purpose of this whole aside is that I want to establish credibility with you, so you will give this article some consideration. This is the best post on this entire comment thread. Everything thats happening in the crypto space is just so normal as you would expect investors struggling to get the price right for something beyond the control of regulation. Good comments Jon. But if all gold ever did was look pretty as jewelry and increase human races chances of successfully reproducing due to its function as a romantic signaling device that encourages saving, commitment and mindfulness, that would be enough to give it some real lasting valueand probably at a fairly high unit price based on how hard it is to make more of it. Maybe the currencies will be useful to, but the really useful ones will be the ones designed for some purpose. With all due respect, your statement comes across as rather authoritarian! Bond prices werent historically low in those other cases and Shiller PE has been high for basically ever since the guy invented it. Well, that is not what we are discussing are we? Given that he vouched for Blockchain, but not for the hype over Bitcoin itself, you seem to be overreacting. January 19, 2018, 6:57 pm. Because it is. Read through TomTXs posts below Michael and you will get to know who started. The Money Mustache Community . 7 Replies 594 Views February 10, 2023, 11:49:28 AM by index: Bonds funds vs stable value funds. Get listed and sell some shares. If cryptocurrency takes off, its much more likely that the winning one hasnt even been created yet, if history holds. The only flaw with your fingernail analogy is that most of your devotees would only be too willing to fork over $70,000 for them. Why is the author so angry about this fact? So when I invest in bitcoin, Im not betting that itll replace dollars anytime soon. Exchanges get hacked or hacked (where the operators secretly run off with the coins) all the time. Does that mean investing in Berkshire Hathaway is speculating? There used to be cool arbitrage opportunities on a website called purse.io, where you could buy amazon products for a discount using bitcoin but transaction fees have made those types of business models (temporarily?) One book that I found very useful in understanding the greed-fear cycle (and Central Banking and the Federal Reserve system to boot) is the 2001 classic Towards Rational Exuberance by Mark Smith. After all, the ONLY thing that gives a fiat money its value is what someone else is willing to give you for it. January 3, 2018, 9:04 pm. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, and maybe everyone that posts here about how wonderful Bitcoin is will be minted a Bitcoin millionaire and will lock in those profits can we remain sane and humble on the other side? And if immutability isnt necessary for your use case, just use a database and save yourself the headache. Bitcoin mania isnt different from the dot.com mania or any other mania going back to the tulip mania. January 3, 2018, 7:32 am. If you introduced a brand new commodity to the world, would you expect the price to be stable? Cryptocurrency could be the proverbial cure for cancer, but if its made illegal or heavily regulated through prudent or reactionary legislation (YMMV) it doesnt really matter, does it? MMM i normally love your articles but you knew this one would be polarizing Im sure. "Find a graph that includes [the. January 2, 2018, 5:54 pm. Research Ethereum further. He and his wife studied engineering and computer science in Canada, then worked in . Jeremy Collins I just recently read that someone in metro Vancouver Canada liquidated $100,000 worth of their retirement savings and used that money to purchase servers for bitcoin mining. Christopher R Young Thanks for sharing your opinion! The US has most to lose if dollars are exchanged for bitcoin as the US will not be able to print the cash for almost no cost and then get countries to use it for payment (my advice is be very worried about dollar value over next 10 years) but it was genius and made America rich! Speculation is great. Of course get out NOW. You are a fine example of that specimen horse. Yes, its unstable, and you wouldnt say trade it, but as a long term investment it has been proven itself. You made an unsupported claim. Saving billions from poverty, war, and the enslavement of banks or the lack of any banking is Altruistic. Blockchain technology may do that too. Bitcoin is the viral buzzword that has the momentum. As has the MMM investing sub-furum. The growing demand for more electricity is the most serious issue with Bitcoin, IMO. To compare with fiat currency, we need to consider fiat currencys rippling effect on society. Stefan Brand The short answer is they can do nothing about it! Take that money and RUN! Thanks for your perspective on an interesting topic. Is this likely to be worth $20,000 long term? It grew to $240k. Then you have to pay a ton of interest to borrow it, and be lucky with the timing. Are you for real? But it also has some ideology built in the assumption that giving national governments the ability to monitor flows of money in the financial system and use it as a form of law enforcement is wrong. A currency that unstable cant be realistically used for transactions, even if you forget about its other limitations. Its all the same stuff that people say about Gold, which is also a totally irrational waste of human investment energy. Since the Fed can always print as much currency as it wants, I would probably bet on scenario #2 as well, so perhaps were half in agreement. So just relax, lean into it, and grow rich with me. Not a penny was wasted. Who wants to sacrifice to earn financial freedom when you can just invest in Bitcoin and achieve the same in less than a year. Shut up, just send me $100 via PayPal and Ill send you a bag of my fingernail clippings. Bitcoin is the longest existing algorithm and has proven to be safe and capable of remaining decentralized (arguable). While cryptos are new, they also dont meet the needs of traditional cash flow analysis but for a new asset class but just because its new doesnt mean its a bad idea. You call it trust. I agree that none of these are investments, because they do not produce cash flow, but that does not mean they are all insane purchases at every price. Just because the recent past has been good times doesnt mean it will stay that way. Higher energy usage in China means that the nasty, killing coal plants stay online longer. If youre one of these credible people, please do so in the comments or in a blog post on Medium that we can all read. For those of us who live in USA and use the USD for our currency, what does it mean to trust that government, which is currently breaching 19 TRILLION dollars in debt (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States) while simultaneously reducing its revenue stream (tax breaks for everyone). While stocks are likely a bit frothy, P/E ratios arent near the peaks they were circa 2000s: And important thing to note here is that underneath (almost all) stocks are actual engines of growth with hundreds or thousands of humans working hard, churning out profits, earnings, and dividends. People who have been trading 100s to buy illegal goods must be making out. Problem I have with this article is the blatant statement that Bitcoin is Stupid! In the field of personal wealth, this means walking your children past the idling lineup of your neighbors Mercedes SUVs, over the snowy grass and up to the door of the school and being confident that you are doing the right thing. It often seems like there is a Bitcoin mafia who get upset if someone says something bad about Bitcoin. January 2, 2018, 5:49 pm. But some people actually DO value rare baseball cards and stuffed animals and gold and tulips at current prices, as goods in and of themselves. Assuming you can know the exact price of a commodity on a given day is speculative, yes. There valuation of pretty much everything but Bitcoin and Ethereum is unjustifiable. If you have the courage. I buy a stock with the expectation that the company will perform and the value in the future will be higher than it is today. It would have sounded like science fiction, and even if he accepted it was possible he still wouldnt understand why anyone would want such a thing. This is not characteristic of a healthy financial system (particularly so many years into a global recovery), but rather a zombie one thats been artificially propped up since the financial crisis. The financial strategist has established a large audience by favoring slower-paced bets on surer outcomes over cryptocurrency's notorious high-risk-high-reward scenarios. Prices would rise, especially if the supply of these pills was limited (just as an artificial supply limit is built right into the Bitcoin algorithm.). Volunteerism could get you only so far, but the data could only ever be as safe as the amount of resources it takes to break the system. So I did learn a bit about locking and unlocking information, hacking, and ensuring that independent brains (whether they are two adjacent CPUs on a circuit board or two companies negotiating across the Pacific) can trust each other and coordinate their actions in lockstep. Rule of thumb is never put everything in one basket. Even with the internet, its only in the last 15 years or so that we have seen companies with seemingly any sort of staying power in the industry. Lottery tickets might be a good investment for you too. . 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